Tom Aspinall vs. Sergei Pavlovich full fight preview | UFC 295

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Heavyweight talents Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich will collide this weekend (Sat., Nov. 11, 2023) at UFC 295 inside Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York.

Sure, it’s not Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic, and it’s the interim belt rather than official gold, but ... does anyone really care? This is a great fight! Aspinall and Pavlovich are 30 and 31 years of age, respectively, and they absolutely represent the future of the Heavyweight division. Both the winner and loser will be factors for years to come, so in that way, it’s a lot more relevant than two greats that are ready to retire yesterday. Beyond all the belts and legacy, there are just so many intriguing questions. We’ve never seen either man forced into deep waters. They’ve just been blowing all of their opposition out of the water, so the potential for a sudden finish or shocking war of attrition is very real.

Let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each man:

Tom Aspinall

Record: 13-3
Key Wins: Alexander Volkov (UFC London), Marcin Tybura (UFC London), Andrei Arlovski (UFC Vegas 36), Sergei Spivac (UFC Vegas 19), Jake Collier (UFC Fight Island 3)
Keys Losses: Curtis Blaydes (UFC London)
Keys to Victory: Aspinall is so obviously a special fighter. Speed is such a rare asset at Heavyweight, and Aspinall has it in spades. His reaction speed just feels a level higher than his opponents, allowing him to time double legs, clinch strikes and right hands that they just don’t see coming.

His Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt doesn’t hurt, either.

In this bout, the common consensus seems to be that Aspinall would be wise to take down Pavlovich. Nobody wants to trade right hands with the Russian, and we haven’t seen him tested on the floor since Alistair Overeem battered him with ground strikes back in 2018.

I don’t know that taking Pavlovich down will be an easy task — Blaydes would’ve done it if it were easy — but Aspinall does have the tools to make it happen. He’s got the power and head movement to stand in front of Pavlovich and get him swinging, at which point a roll into a double leg is one of the best shots in the sport.

Maybe Pavlovich’s bottom game has improved in the last five years, but almost no big man likes being put on his back. The takedown is worth pursuing, and it could open up a lot of options for the English contender.

Sergei Pavlovich

Record: 18-1
Key Wins: Curtis Blaydes (UFC Vegas 71), Tai Tuivasa (UFC Orlando), Derrick Lewis (UFC 277), Shamil Abdurakhimov (UFC London), Maurice Greene (UFC Fight Night 162)
Key Losses: Alistair Overeem (UFC Fight Night 141)
Keys to Victory: Pavlovich has bricks for fists. He steps forward hard into his right hand and chucks ‘em in combination, and thus far, everyone who feels that shot hits the floor soon afterward.

Given how short his overall UFC career has been, it’s hard to suggest adjustments for Pavlovich. He just keeps destroying people! It’s really hard to argue with six straight first-round knockout wins.

Perhaps the biggest key here will be to avoid reaching with his punches. Aspinall is a dangerous counter puncher and has a great reactive double, so Pavlovich’s range is more important than ever. Trying to find his distance — maybe with the body jab? — before exploding forward will be really helpful in ensuring he doesn’t give up easy openings to a dangerous opponent.

This isn’t Curtis Blaydes. Pavlovich doesn’t want to walk through three right hands to start unloading his own offense. A bit of prep work could go a long way!

Bottom Line

The future of the Heavyweight division is on the line.

Make no mistake: this is a clear Robert Whittaker vs. Yoel Romero situation. While the official belt is held up by politics and money, the interim title will be awarded to the top talent actually tearing up the Heavyweight ranks. There is unlikely to be any unification, but anyone paying attention knows the deal.

Once more, Aspinall and Pavlovich are so young for Heavyweights, a division where athletes don’t usually hit their prime until 35. Likely, this is the first fight of several between the two, because they both still have such a long time to compete (barring severe injury or Heavyweight boxing matches).

It’s all up for grabs.

At UFC 295, Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich will fight for Heavyweight gold. Which man leaves the cage with a new belt?

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