Receiving the Patriot missile defense system could help Ukraine defend its airspace and critical infrastructure from ballistic and cruise missiles in the long haul.
CNN, citing two U.S. officials and a senior Biden administration official, reported Tuesday that the advanced long-range air system will likely be approved by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin prior to President Joe Biden signing off.
The system was reported by CNN "to ship quickly in the coming days," with Ukrainians receiving training at a U.S. Army base in Grafenwoehr, Germany.
Despite the cost and logistics of delivering such a system to Ukraine, the administration official cited "the reality of what is going on the ground" as impetus for the decision. Critical Ukrainian power and water infrastructure have experienced a barrage of missile attacks in recent months across the country, posing humanitarian issues as temperatures continue to decrease in Eastern Europe.
Pentagon spokesperson Garron Gurn neither confirmed nor denied the sending of the Patriot system, telling Newsweek it had nothing to announce regarding security assistance to Ukraine.
"We will provide a statement when the next security assistance package is ready," Gurn said.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Patriots would "definitely" be a target for Russia, Reuters reported, but he would not comment on unconfirmed media reports.
Questions about models, cost
Jordan Cohen, policy analyst at the Cato Institute, told Newsweek that if reports are accurate, it remains undetermined which version of the Patriot Ukraine would receive.
One version, the GEM-T for tactical ballistic missiles, is different than the GEM-C, which targets cruise missiles. Cohen noted that those two systems differ from the PAC-3 MSE (Missile System Enhancement).
"The type of missile affects how long training takes, how expensive each component is, and how it can be used," he said. "Given that a contractor is not yet named, frankly, I am not certain that the administration has decided what missile they are sending."
While the Patriot can shoot longer ranges and is a more versatile system than National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS), he expressed cause for concern regards costs.
"They are expensive; making sure that the batteries will not be dispersed will take extra training, training on the system by itself takes a long time and I'm not sure that the opportunity cost leans in favor of sending the missile," Cohen said.
Raytheon Company Missile Systems Division is the prime contractor for the PATRIOT system for the U.S. Army, which first utilized what it calls the "most advanced air defense system" in Israel and Saudi Arabia during Operation Desert Storm.
A typical Patriot battery includes a phased array radar, an engagement control station, computers, power generating equipment, and up to eight launchers—each of which holds four ready-to-fire missiles. About 90 soldiers can be assigned for one battery.
Netherlands, Germany, Japan, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Taiwan, Greece, Spain, South Korea, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Romania, Sweden, Poland and Bahrain also own Patriots, reports CBS News.
A long-term defense plan
Ian Williams, a fellow in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and deputy director of the Missile Defense Project, told Newsweek that one battery provided to Ukrainian forces may not have a major overall impact.
He said the U.S. has success with them because units are deployed as battalions with four batteries, radar in different directions. While the axis is limited for the need for employment, Ukraine has to be cognizant of missiles coming from multiple directions—such as from the Caspian and Black seas—which he says poses "a pretty big limitation."
Williams also expressed hesitance due to the Patriot not being omnidirectional, or rotating. It's a 120-degree field of perspective that has to be augmented with other systems.
"In either case, the one battery is going to help in some ways to augment some of the other capabilities they have, but it's not gonna fundamentally change the strategic situation Ukraine finds itself in," Williams said.
However, while the Patriot won't tip the scales in Ukraine's favor, he said it will reinforce a safer airspace that has been aided by previously provided defense systems like NASAMS. Man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) and NASAMS can't alone provide protection.
As other systems need maintenance or simply burn out over time from use, additional defense systems can maintain a longer term of deterrence.
Williams said he'd also be surprised if Ukrainians haven't already been receiving training in Germany. The White House announces such weapons transfers strategically, he said.
And while Patriot training for the U.S. Army can take as long as 20 weeks, Williams believes that period could be compressed—especially when dealing with soldiers experienced in air defense operations. The Patriot does pose unique challenges as a legacy system, he added, including many upgrades and incorporating different technology over time.
"Quirks show up and there's sometimes things that operators learn how to get around through experience that doesn't necessarily show up in a training manual," he said.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Nick Mordowanec is a Newsweek reporter based in Michigan. His focus is reporting on Ukraine and Russia, along with social ... Read more
